You can always tell when the weekend is approaching. If it isn’t Twitter getting killed, it’s podcasting dying, death of blogs, slaughter of the record labels or one or more form of Heritage media.  It’s honestly quite difficult to top it every week. On the one hand, we bloviators have generally no compunctions re-using the same media type, but for it to really generate a respectable bitchmeme, you’ve got to really be creative.

Steve Rubel, well known for predicting economic doom and gloom due to over-investment in technology, this week predicts the death of all tangible media.

Steve says “by January 2014 I will wager that in the US almost all forms of tangible media will either be in sharp decline or completely extinct,” including (but not limited to) software, books, video games, newspapers, CDs, and DVDs.

Once again, Steve’s penchant for hyperbole gets him in trouble. Certainly, there will be a sharp decline in the usage of a lot of the media we still purchase to this day, and for a lot of the categories of physical media he alludes to, I expect them to disappear altogether a whole lot sooner. But all tangible media eliminated? That is something that won’t happen until we’ve as a race technologically transcended the need for human bodies.

Video Games

Steve cites systems like XBox live, and the advent of their online only markeplace for UGC content as evidence the death of video games in their physical format. The problem comes in when you consider the size of your typical video game can be between 4 gigabytes and 34 gigabytes. On your base level Internet connection, the download times start at six hours, and end at three days.  

Even if you have one of those brand spanking new Comcast or FiOS connections, you’re still looking at least a couple hours. None of that takes into account those cute bandwidth caps all the operators have decided were such good ideas recently.

Newspaper and Music

He doesn’t get much argument on this one from me.  Music, in physical form, is more or less dead. Physical record shops are a rarity, and the record labels continue to pursue self-destructive business models (suing your customers and their 12-year-old children is not a winning marketing move).

Similarly, newspapers around the world and across the country refuse to take drastic enough actions to adapt to life in the digital age. Those that understand that the future is online don’t do enough with organization to adapt to producing content for the web environment, and the rest of the industry is still in denial.

These are examples of industries that will not transition to digital media, but be replaced by a new guard that has the will and ambition to create viable solutions in this arena

Books

As dozens of Rubel’s commentors noted, there might be a transformation of the book business to a mostly online model, but it will never make the full transition. Books in many of their various forms and genres are considered collectible. Some commentors had other protests:

“I like having the artifacts of my reading around me to decorate the house. I’m in my 40s, though, so perhaps future generations will have no such nostalgia for tangible media artifacts.”

“I like being able to flip through an atlas and a few large picture books, something I can’t do on Kindle. These provide very different experiences than Google Maps and a Flickr photo album.”

I think that innovations in eBook technology will make the format so popular that this will be a moot point, but it’s almost impossible to put a date on when this will happen on a broad scale. There is so much that needs to be right about the device, from user experience on down to business model. Kindle is the closest we have at the moment, and I’m really excited about what’s promised by the PlasticLogic, but there’s no telling how the general public will receive it.

TV and Movies

We’re getting closer and closer to a world where physical media and even the traditional distribution methods are superflous, and no longer needed. The primary limitations in place that prevent a full on replacement of network TV, cable TV and the Hollywood studio and distribution system lay in monetization and, of course, bandwidth limitations.

It wouldn’t be fair to cite Blu-Ray statistics for a fair estimation of your average size, since many pundits think that Blue-Ray adoption rates indicate it won’t take hold as a standard before it become obsolete. If you take into account the standard size of a regular DVD movie, you’re still looking at average download times of five to seven hours for most broadband subscribers.

Timeshifting, media RSS, podcasting, and downsampling all can help to bridge this gap, but it will all be meaningless until someone is able to create some sort of set-top box for the living-room that people will actually want to use on a regular basis. This, in my opinion, won’t happen until the device makers in this space start to pay attention to the types of content out there and the ways that people like to consume their digital content.

I’ve been imagining this moment is just around the corner for at least the last five years.  At this point, I’m starting to give up hope they’ll ever understand.

Given these factors, we won’t see the elimination of the physical media for movies for quite a while (with the outside chance that some device maker could have an epiphany tomorrow).

So, Could It Happen? Could It Happen by 2012?

Yeah, maybe.  Maybe if …

eBook manufacturers absolutely nail the perfect combination of form, function and business model.  Oh, and Oprah has to keep plugging it on a regular basis…

… the recording industry continues down it’s self-destructive business model…

… the New York Times goes out of business …

… device manufacturers finally read one of my articles about “the veg-factor” …

… and the cable and telco companies decide to lift bandwidth caps and finish building out a real broadband network for America.

Quite honestly, I’d love to believe that all this could happen in the next two years or so. I just don’t see it happening, though.

—Related Articles at Mashable | All That’s New on the Web:The End of the Music Industry in 2008RIAA’s Sacrificial Lamb Appeals Damning Court RulingHow Big Media Can Beat P2P and Make a Killing in the RecessionDon’t Send Bac’n: Use TwitterSearchThe RIAA Will Die in 2008The Case of Facebook v SlickCashIs Social Advertising a Safe Haven for Marketing Budgets?

There are only a few places around the world where the vice of art of consumerism is having a good day. Suffice it to say that the holiday season will be celebrated; it just won’t be full of so much…stuff. And maybe a bit less happiness to show for it, too.

So Scrooge wins this time around. But here’s a glimmer of hope to nibble on. In the media world, in an industry dominated by the RIAA and the MPAA, diminished sales matched with increased P2P “naughtiness” may tip the scales in favor of the change that people have long been hoping for in the land of “fair use” and fair pricing.

It’s Worth a Shot

Of course, the cards remain stacked against what everyone fond of music and movies familiar with copyright law and media titans’ business practices believe in. You can teach an old dog new tricks, but it sure as heck ain’t easy, as the last few years of relative chaos has made clear. It’s hardly guaranteed that we’ll see greener pastures anytime soon.

But, and this is a pretty big but, there’s a possibility that what goes on on the Web between the present day and whenever the moment is that this global “economic downturn” goes in the direction most of us wish to go will cause the Sonys and Universals and Warners and EMIs of the world to shift course. In three ways, this means:

Taking DRM entirely out of the picture, which continues to be an annoyingly persistent reality, despite its philosophical and practical absurdity for associated software and hardware markets (i.e., iPod/iTunes vs. Zune vs Sandisk, et al.);

Allowing for streaming services like Last.fm and MySpace Music to actually host on-demand playback options for full tracks from full albums and EPs with no limits;

And attaching costs to purchased copies of singles, albums, and movies that more accurately reflect production and modern distribution costs. Simply put, having to pay upwards of $10 for a 10- to 12-track album or $12-15 for a film that involves little or no petroleum in the effort to get it from the seller to the listener is ridiculous and dishonest.

All About Bang for Buck

Let’s face it, the path for a continued physical presence in consumers’ lives is a finite one. CDs and DVDs sell, but that won’t forever be the case. And in light of that expectation, the media industry would be off to quite an improved position in these murky times if it 1) enticed consumers with a largely irresistible cost structure for retail downloads, and 2) made it easier for consumers to actually play their preordained part.

It’s pretty logical, I think. If you as a producer would like people to consume more of your content, make your content available in ways and at prices that don’t scream “here’s the premium to pay to watch this on your television set or hear that on your portable player this very minute if you prefer not to gas it over to Wal-Mart or wait for super-slow Super-Saver shipping by Amazon for the tangible thing.”

Yes, the convenience of near-instant gratification is a definite plus. But with infrastructural savings on the part of producers and distributors should come a substantial financial benefit for the consumer as well.

Imagery provided by iStockPhoto/DNY59; HappyBirthdayBilly

—Related Articles at Mashable | All That’s New on the Web:If It’s On The Internet, It Must Be TrueGot $80,000? You Can Buy SimpleWeatherDesperate Brokers are the New LolcatsWill Aggregation Ever Go Mainstream?Australian Ad It Last Comes To AmericaYahoo: Microsoft’s Bid Undervalues The CompanyLiveblog: Is Broadcast Media Co-opting Citizen-Powered Media?

SocialMedian was barely a thought for people back in February, but it has gained a solid following in the 9 months

of its existence. Many people would ask why this startup has gained any traction. It is yet another social news site with voting and commenting. Did we really need another? Given the amount of traffic that socialmedian is getting, it is obvious that they are onto something.

With this in mind, I figured it was time to chat with SocialMedian Founder and CEO Jason Goldberg and find out if things were actually as good as they sounded.

A look Back

During the summer, there was rapid growth as SocialMedian added Google Reader and other service integration, as well as replize. These features were added because of user feedback. Goldberg has stated several times, “Our model at SocialMedian has been:  small, fast, and listen to users.” You have probably noticed that you do not see any advertising or many press releases plastered all over the major news sites. Essentially, SocialMedian has been built through its user base. The only “press coverage” you tend to see are reviews from various blogs, including here on Mashable.

Almost a month ago, SocialMedian integrated with Facebook and users saw a large amount of traffic coming from the popular social network. Also, in the weeks leading up to the election, socialmedian announced partnerships with the Washington Post and The Guardian. Their election widget was gaining adoption, and Goldberg stated that the few days following the widget release had seen a 300% increase in traffic. Why? It is probably due to the partnerships created through the Election Talk widget.

A chat with SocialMedian

Rob: How big of a traffic boost did the Facebook integration give you?

Jason: We got a nice initial boost when we launched our Facebook integration as our existing members were suddenly easily able to find and follow their Facebook friends and to invite new friends to check out SocialMedian. Since then, Facebook has been a steady boost for us as our users have amplified their SocialMedian activities to their Facebook friends and new users have also taken to our Facebook features. On a scale of 1 to 10 in terms of overall impact to our growth and engagement, I’d say Facebook integration has been about a 7, but has the potential to be a 10 with some new developments we have planned to even better leverage the Facebook platform.

One thing the Facebook integration launch did though was it really went a long way towards starting to mainstream SocialMedian. I used to measure our growth entirely on new registrations. It taught me that awareness comes first then adoption. The Facebook integration made a whole bunch of new people suddenly aware of SocialMedian via their Facebook friends. After seeing SocialMedian postings on their friends’ Facebook pages for the 5th, 10th, 50th time, you start to see adoption. The second thing it did was really up the engagement level on SocialMedian. Suddenly it was really easy to follow people via Facebook. That hit our currently active users with a slew of new follow messages, which ignited them.

Rob: Obviously, the Washington Post and Guardian partnerships are a big deal. Do you see SocialMedian making several partnerships like this?

Jason: YES! It took us two weeks to put together the micro-site election.socialmedian.com for the Washington Post and then 1 phone call to get The Guardian excited about taking the widget. Now we know how to do it fast and know better to get ahead on working with more partners to include them. We also built this in a way in which we can replicate it again and again and again with only 2 days to get a micro-site up and running for any topical SocialMedian news network.

We’ll do our second one next week for the Monaco Media Forum event in Monaco November 12th, where the Prince of Monaco brings together 300 leaders in the transformation of media. It’s a closed event but SocialMedian will enable people to follow every blog post, video, picture, and tweet from home. You heard that here first. The page for that will be http://mmf.socialmedian.com.

Rob: Do you see any scalability problems with the micro-site idea? Meaning how often can you do these without affecting how much staff you must maintain?

Jason: No. It basically builds right on top of our “news network” concept in which anyone can create a news network to gather and discuss news about a particular topic. For these microsites like election.socialmedian.com or mmf.socialmedian.com, all we really do now is apply a template created for the election site which adds some additional views like “rising fast” in addition to “popular” and “recent” and which enables anyone to grab and embed a widget for the news network. We can do hundreds of these without any negative resource impact.

Rob: At the beginning of November Quantcast showed SocialMedian at just over 160K page views, what is the real traffic? I saw the email regarding the 300% increase over 3 days. Does that give you over 475K pageviews?

Jason: Conservative estimates had socialmedian at 500K pageviews (rolling 30 days). October ended consistently above 20K per day. Overall, there were 225K pageviews in September, 280K in October, and 120K the first week of November with traffic rapidly increasing as we got closer to the election. Quantcast has significantly more conservative numbers.

Rob: So how do you measure user engagement?

Jason: Clips/day is our best measure of engagement. Clips aggregate all user activities: clipping, sharing, like/dislike, and 1st comment a user makes on a story. In the past 60 days we’ve gone from averaging 1500 clips/day to more than 3500. We have seen the same sort of increase in comments as well. We attribute our replize feature, where users reply to other users vs. just leaving comments, as the key to the rapid rise in comment levels. One thing worth noting is that Mixx has probably 4-5x our traffic, but we are far higher than them on clips/story vs. their votes, and comments/story. In other words, we have more quality traffic we think and more engaged users.

Rob: Have you seen a traffic boost due to the election partnerships?

Jason: We see that our user growth has been more about the tech community suddenly all talking about SocialMedian at once vs. being all about the election. Over the past 4 days we’ve added more new registered users than in the previous 4 weeks. We’ve seen our 3 biggest traffic days yesterday (on a Sunday!) and the two prior days. It happened because users started talking publicly about how they seem to be getting value from SocialMedian. Nothing beats positive word of mouth. And we’ve worked really hard to cultivate that, while spending $0 on outbound marketing.

It’s all about satisfying users and getting them engaged in the service. Then, when they recommend the service to their friends or readers, it helps that newbies see a party going on when they get to SocialMedian (a vibrant community) that they can join in on vs. have to create. Notably, our strongest area is still tech news and we still have a very tech-oriented early user base, but at the same time our users have created more than 2000 news networks on all sorts of topics.

Rob: Will end of election season hurt traffic significantly, or are you seeing increased engagement from the new users?

Jason: So far we are holding up very nicely as new people introduced to SocialMedian because of the election and from Twit.tv seem to largely be staying around. This past Sunday was our biggest Sunday in history and Monday was better than the Monday before the election…so far so good. I think it’s fair to say that the election helped draw people in but the discussion continues around the news of the day.

Rob: What is the biggest complaint from users and how are you addressing it?

Jason: The biggest feature request we have is for us to add topical news search. We have none right now. That’s coming in just a couple of weeks. We’re also working on better filters and cleaning up the UI, which have been big user requests/complaints.

Rob: What do you see as the biggest reason for success?

Jason: The biggest reason for success is simple. We listen to users. We have done very little to focus on growth and marketing and instead focused almost entirely on helping one users at a time find value and get more engaged with the service. Our theory is that one happy user will bring 10 over time. That’s our focus.

Looking forward

Obviously, things look to be going very well for Jason and SocialMedian. It is still too early to determine whether the traffic will decrease now that the election is over, but the micro-sites give SocialMedian the ability to have focused coverage on any major event or conference. SocialMedian is maturing nicely, and I would definitely keep an eye on their future.

—Related Articles at Mashable | All That’s New on the Web:SocialMedian is Raising $500,000 … In 140 Characters or LessSocialmedian Releases Replize to Start Conversationssocialmedian: The Latest Social News Aggregator [Invites]Socialmedian Opens Up Combining Many of the Best Ideas in Social NewsSocialMedian Adds News Streaming and Opens its Walled GardenPick a Startup to Get Funded: The VenCorps Mashable ShowdownSocialMedian Tweaks Site with New Beta Features [Invites]

Source:Mashable!

This article is part of the Open Web Awards, an open, international contest for the best websites and services.

Based on the developments of the past year, the future of music may very well be free. The record labels are suddenly willing to work with Web companies on free and legal music distribution, leading to the high profile launch of MySpace Music, as well as the continued growth of startups like Imeem, iLike, and Amie Street. CBS-owned Last.fm also got on the free music bandwagon, offering up full tracks with limited free streaming.

However, those are far from the only sites that made noise in the online music scene in the past year. We recently compiled a list of more than 30 different free and legal sites where you can get free music, each of which has its own unique twists for discovering the best artists and songs. Nominate your favorite using the widget below.

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—Related Articles at Mashable | All That’s New on the Web:Moshable: Great Name, How’d Ya Think Of It?Free Streaming Music Is The Next Big SoundAnimoto Officially Launches Video Mashup ToolLast.fm Partners with IODA - Even More Music on Last.fmMxPlay Launches A Browser Plug-In Music WidgetMusic Nation Partners with Bug Music to Find & Sign TalentNokia Opens Music Store (Which Sucks)

Part game, part free music site, TheNextBigSound is surely one of the slickest new music sites we’ve seen.

As demoed at the TECHcocktail event in Chicago last week, the concept is simple and ingenious: listen to free music from unsigned bands, and “sign” your favorites to your own virtual record label. When your signed artists become hits on the site, you score points.

Simple…ingenious…and very addictive.

Once you’re done building a music empire, don’t forget to check out the hundreds of other free music sites we’ve covered recently:

Online Music: 90+ Essential Music and Audio Websites

Keep Rocking: 30+ Sites for Free & Legal Music

30+ Awesome Sites for Streaming Music

25 Tools For The Independent Musician

Music News Toolbox: 50+ Links For Discovering New Music

—Related Articles at Mashable | All That’s New on the Web:Last.fm Still Growing. Thanks, Free Music.Moshable: Great Name, How’d Ya Think Of It?Last.fm: Free Music Initiative Has Sparked 119% Rise In SalesMore Free Music: Teen Social Network Kiwibox to Get Universal’s CatalogLala’s Free Music Streams Shuttered: Too PopularBillboard Top 100 Now Includes Yahoo and AOL MusicMySpace Music: It’s All About the Activity Stream

Moshable.com is unlikely to make major inroads against larger players like MySpace Music, but the Oregon-based social network for musicians must be commended on its phenomenal choice of name.

In all seriousness, social networking for music is a competitive market and bands go with whichever site provides the greatest distribution to their target demographic - even if Moshable met its claim of being the “ultimate music site where you can discover and meet new bands, new music, and industry news every day”, those claims mean nothing without audience and distribution.

For a recap on the state of the music market, check out our compilations of the best music sites:

Online Music: 90+ Essential Music and Audio Websites

30+ Awesome Sites for Streaming Music

25 Tools For The Independent Musician

Music News Toolbox: 50+ Links For Discovering New Music

Keep Rocking: 30+ Sites for Free & Legal Music

ITUNES TOOLBOX: 30+ Tools For iTunes

Moshable.com is unlikely to make major inroads against larger players like MySpace Music, but the Oregon-based social network for musicians must be commended on its phenomenal choice of name.

In all seriousness, social networking for music is a competitive market and bands go with whichever site provides the greatest distribution to their target demographic - even if Moshable met its claim of being the “ultimate music site where you can discover and meet new bands, new music, and industry news every day”, those claims mean nothing without audience and distribution.

For a recap on the state of the music market, check out our compilations of the best music sites:

Online Music: 90+ Essential Music and Audio Websites

30+ Awesome Sites for Streaming Music

25 Tools For The Independent Musician

Music News Toolbox: 50+ Links For Discovering New Music

Keep Rocking: 30+ Sites for Free & Legal Music

ITUNES TOOLBOX: 30+ Tools For iTunes

I can’t figure this out. This video, from MTV’s video site, has been bleeped by MTV in an effort to hide file sharing system names in Weird Al Yankovic “Don’t Download This Song.” The original lyrics:

Once in a while maybe you will feel the urge
To break international copyright law
By downloading MP3s from file-sharing sites
Like Morpheus or Grokster or Limewire or KaZaA

Strangley, all of those file-sharing sites are bleeped out. Is it a conspiracy?

Those anti-monopoly laws are serious business. When Microsoft complained that Google selling ads on Yahoo’s ad space was akin to a search monopoly, they obviously consulted their army of lawyers who said that the deal has a big probability of failing.

According to WSJ (link behind a paywall), this probability is very high right now, and the companies might walk away from the deal by the middle of next week. You can’t really go around the fact that Google and Yahoo own over 80 percent of the web search market, and it seems that Google and Yahoo can’t convince the U.S. Department of Justice that it’s not a monopoly.

Yahoo spokesman Tracy Schmaler has given Reuters the usual PR drizzle; Yahoo, as she says, believes strongly “that this agreement will strengthen Yahoo’s competitive position in online advertising and will help to drive a more robust, higher quality Yahoo marketplace for their advertisers, publishers and users.”

Google spokesman Adam Kovacevich said even less: “We are confident that the arrangement is beneficial to competition, but we are not going to discuss the details of the process.”

Therefore, the deal may not yet be completely dead yet, but the Wall Street Journal claims that the talks both companies had with the Department of Justice on Thursday weren’t going too well.

If the deal doesn’t go through, it will only be a minor nuisance for Google. As far as Yahoo goes, the company is still nowhere: they’re looking at the possibility of merging with Time-Warner; this search deal with Google was part of the tactic to scare Microsoft away from trying a hostile takeover, so it’s doubtful that it’s a good idea in the first place, and their stock has been pretty much free falling ever since Microsoft said that the takeover offer is off the table. Things aren’t looking too bright for Yahoo shareholders.

—Related Articles at Mashable | All That’s New on the Web:Yahoo Starts Layoffs While Deciding What To Do NextYahoo May Consider Letting Google Handle Paid SearchYahoo-Google Deal Looking Good; Common Sense Packs Up And LeavesComcast Chooses Yahoo…Google Kicked in the Nuts?Yahoo Gets Better Consumer Rating than GoogleBebo Partners with Yahoo Search: Acquisition Imminent?MASSIVE: Microsoft May Acquire Yahoo for $50 Billion

Source:Mashable!

A while ago I laid down a theory that a significant number of users are using YouTube to share data that isn’t videos. Most often, it’s music, and therefore there are a lot of videos on YouTube that consist of a music track and some images slapped together just to make them videos. In a way, it’s untapped potential, because YouTube isn’t doing much to make it easier for users to share music that doesn’t necessarily have an (official) video attached to it.

Enter StreamDrag, a simple music search engine that draws its collection from YouTube’s massive database, although it’s not really transparent - or important - to the end user, who doesn’t see the video at all, he just listens to the song. Titles of songs such as “Tool - Sober (HQ Fullscreen)” can be a bit misleading, but it’s a minor point as long as you’re in it just to hear the music.

A nice option is the playlist; stack a bunch of tracks together and you’ve got yourself a party. This can be done in YouTube and other third party tools, but it’s extremely simple in StreamDrag; click on the “+” icon next to the song and it’s added to the playlist (to return to the search results, just click on “playlist” again). Everything else on the site is very straightforward: you’ve got play/pause, stop, rwd and ffwd buttons, as well as a repeat and sound on/off switches. I like it: by removing everything else and focusing on the music, StreamDrag is actually much more enjoyable (and faster) to use than many other similar services (including YouTube itself).

StreamDrag is a direct competitor to services such as Songza. The developer behind StreamDrag, David Lorenz, claims that the simplicity of his application is the key difference here, as well as some features that enhance the user experience such as looping a single track. I’m not convinced that this is enough to beat the competition, but I do admit that using StreamDrag could not be simpler, which is always a good thing.

—Related Articles at Mashable | All That’s New on the Web:Last.fm Still Growing. Thanks, Free Music.YouTube Strikes Deal with EMIYouTube Pens Deal with UK Music Royalties AllianceYouTube is the Ultimate Sharing Site and Google Needs to Capitalize on ThatDailyMotion Partners with Warner MusicLast.fm Partners with The Orchard…Mashable Readers Fall AsleepYouTube To Host Music Videos