In a move that shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Time Warner is poised to sell off AOL in separate pieces and will reportedly separate its advertising and content platforms with its dial-up business to get the most out of the poor sucker that acquires it.

According to those close to the move, Time Warner believes AOL may be more valuable to them once it’s separated and it believes that it can make about $10 billion off the sale of its parts.  But as most analysts correctly point out, that’s probably not going to happen.

“The Yahoo discussions have valued AOL at around $10 billion, excluding the dial-up business,” The Wall Street Journal is reporting.  “In contrast, Time Warner’s current stock price — around $14 — suggests a value of no more than $3 billion to $4 billion for the ad-sales and content businesses, some analysts say.”

Wishful thinking or an attempt to capitalize on the Yahoo malaise?  Most reports suggest both Microsoft and Yahoo are looking to acquire AOL, but Microsoft, obviously in no danger of worrying about money anytime soon, knows that AOL isn’t worth the $10 billion valuation Time Warner is trying to place on it.

But for Yahoo, a company that has been rocked by more controversy than any other tech company in the past year, an AOL acquisition may be just the right move to allay some shareholder fears and keep Carl Icahn off Jerry Yang’s back.  And perhaps that’s what Time Warner is banking on.

AOL may look like an attractive target for some companies that are trying to expand their presence online, but what does Yahoo have to gain through an acquisition of Time Warner’s stepchild?  It’ll acquire a company that’s having serious trouble on the Weblogs, Inc. front and is desperately trying to find its way as a dial-up company in a broadband world.  And although it is profitable, it has been held back by declining growth and revenue over the past few years and its prospects for growth are all but lost.

This is nothing more than another desperate plea by two companies with two totally different strategies.  Time Warner is desperate to do away with AOL and finally put that problem behind it and Yahoo is desperate to acquire AOL to make its shareholders believe its management knows what it’s doing.  And if that happens, only one company will lose: Yahoo.

If any company acquires AOL, it’ll be Yahoo.  And not because Yahoo has grand plans for the future of this dilapidated firm, but because of its desperation to satisfy shareholders.  I think Microsoft is too smart for this acquisition; at that price, AOL simply isn’t worth it.  But Yahoo doesn’t have the luxury to simply walk away that easily.  And in no time whatsoever, the company will be paying too much for too little.

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